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Prediction for CME (2024-08-01T07:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-08-01T07:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32420/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is an M8.2 flare and eruption from Active Region 13768 (S15W80) starting around 2024-08-01T07:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. A wide opening of field lines is visible in GOES SUVI 171, 195, and 284 imagery at this time as well. Arrival: there is a clear ICME arrival signatures with a shock (according to analysis by the LASSOS team (Carlos Perez Alanis). During the shock B total reaches 19.5 nT and density gets increased to 20p/cc, followed by a period of significant negative Bz reaching -17nT. This signature of ICME shock is preceded by a less clear disturbance in the magnetic field at L1 with Btotal increasing from 8nT at 2024-08-04T04:48Z to 15nT at 06:11Z followed by a protracted period of negative Bz.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-04T13:21Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-04T20:51Z (-9.42h, +11.74h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/08/01 07:20Z
Plane of Sky 1: 12:40Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 19:20Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction
POS Difference: 6:40
POS Midpoint: 16:00Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:40

Numeric View/Impact Type: 0
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.87
Travel Time: ~9.87 * 8:40 = 85:31

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-08-04T20:51Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2024/08/03 21:51Z

Lead Time: 15.38 hour(s)
Difference: -7.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-08-03T21:58Z

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